30 July 2019
Editor’s Note: The information that Stratfor used to create this Situation Report has been called into question by independent journalists in Kismayo. Local officials have rejected the report that the Ethiopian presence in the city has been increased. While the original source of this information has not retracted its report, Stratfor no longer considers it reliable.
What Happened: Ethiopian forces have taken control of several positions in the Somali port city of Kismayo, capital of the Jubbaland region, after Kenyan troops reportedly withdrew from the area, Horn News 24 reported July 29.
Why It Matters: The Somali government likely authorized the push for control by Ethiopian troops as part of its strategy to regain authority over regional governments. Ethiopia has been competing with Kenya for control of the Jubbaland area, which is currently under the administration of Kenyan-backed Sheikh Ahmed Madobe, who remains critical of the central Somali government in Mogadishu.
Background: The competition between Madobe and Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed recently escalated, as Mogadishu has been attempting to influence regional elections in the Jubbaland area.
- Landlocked Ethiopia Charts a Course for a Navy (March 18, 2019)
- The Fight Against Jihadists Is Shifting to Africa (Feb. 28, 2019)
- Somalia: Why an Impeachment Motion Shouldn’t Trouble the President (Dec. 10, 2018)